[1]刘应焱,李 胜,郝 莲,等.2005—2019年中国居民肺炎死亡趋势分析——基于年龄-时期-队列模型[J].卫生经济研究,2021,38(10):64-70,73.
　LIU Ying-yan,LI Sheng,HAO Lian,et al.Analysis on the Death Trend of Pneumonia Among Chinese Residents from 2005 to 2019——Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2021,38(10):64-70,73.
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2005—2019年中国居民肺炎死亡趋势分析
——基于年龄-时期-队列模型
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卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
38
期数:
2021年10期
页码:
64-70,73
栏目:
方法学应用
出版日期:
2021-09-26

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on the Death Trend of Pneumonia Among Chinese Residents from 2005 to 2019
——Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model
作者:
刘应焱1; 李 胜2; 郝 莲1; 王红英1
1.成都中医药大学管理学院，四川 成都 611137
2.成都中医药大学健康政策与药事运营管理研究中心，四川 成都 611137
Author(s):
LIU Ying-yan;  LI Sheng;  HAO Lian;  WANG Hong-ying
School of Management, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu Sichuan 611137, China
关键词:
肺炎; 死亡率; 死亡趋势; 年龄-时期-队列模型
Keywords:
pneumonia;  mortality rate;  death trend;  Age-Period-Cohort model
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析2005—2019年中国城乡居民肺炎死亡变化趋势，为制定肺炎防治策略提供参考依据。方法：采用年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型和内生因子法，估计肺炎死亡风险的年龄、时期和出生队列效应。结果：2005—2019年中国城乡居民肺炎死亡率整体呈上升趋势，且城市高于农村；肺炎死亡风险的年龄效应总体随年龄增加而增大，65~84岁城市居民和60~84岁农村居民是肺炎死亡的高危人群；时期效应随年代增加缓慢上升；城市和农村居民肺炎年龄别死亡率随出生年份的变化下降幅度较大，队列效应呈波动下降趋势。结论：对重点人群实行有针对性的干预措施，提高个人健康意识，培养居民良好的生活及卫生习惯，推广肺炎疫苗接种，不断优化空气环境质量。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the change trend of pneumonia death among urban and rural residents in China from 2005 to 2019, and to provide reference for formulating pneumonia prevention and control strategies. Methods Age-period-cohort (APC) model and endogenous factor method were used to estimate the age, period and birth cohort effect pneumonia death risk. Results From 2005 to 2019, the mortality rate of pneumonia among urban and rural residents in China showed an overall upward trend, and urban residents were higher than rural residents; the age effect of pneumonia death risk increased with age. Urban residents aged 65~84 and rural residents aged 60~ 84 were high-risk groups of pneumonia death; the period effect rose slowly with the increased of years; the age-specific mortality of pneumonia in urban and rural residents decreased significantly with the changed of birth year, and the birth cohort effect showed a fluctuating downward trend. Conclusion Targeted intervention measures should be carried out for key population to improve personal health awareness, cultivate good living and health habits of residents, promote pneumonia vaccination, and constantly optimize the quality of air environment.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2021-09-26