[1]赵 越,张 鑫,苏奕成,等.广西全科医生发展现状及需求预测研究 ——基于GM（1，1）模型和人力人口比值法[J].卫生经济研究,2023,40(9):69-72.
　ZHAO Yue,ZHANG Xin,SU Yicheng,et al.Study on the Development Status and Demand Prediction of General Practitioners in Guangxi ——Based on GM (1,1) Model and Human Population Ratio Method[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2023,40(9):69-72.
点击复制

广西全科医生发展现状及需求预测研究
——基于GM（1，1）模型和人力人口比值法
分享到：

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
40
期数:
2023年9期
页码:
69-72
栏目:
卫生资源
出版日期:
2023-08-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Development Status and Demand Prediction of General Practitioners in Guangxi
——Based on GM (1,1) Model and Human Population Ratio Method
作者:
赵 越1; 张 鑫2; 苏奕成3; 左延莉2
1.广西医科大学第一附属医院，广西 南宁 530021
2.广西医科大学，广西 南宁 530021
3.广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心，广西 南宁 530021
Author(s):
ZHAO Yue;  ZHANG Xin;  SU Yicheng;  ZUO Yanli
The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning Guangxi 530021, China
关键词:
全科医生; 预测研究; GM（1; 1）模型; 人力人口比值法
Keywords:
general practitioners;  predictive research;  GM (1; 1) model;  human population ratio method
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析广西全科医生发展现状，预测“十四五”时期全科医生需求量。方法：对2013—2020年广西全科医生数据进行描述性分析，运用GM（1，1）模型和人力人口比值法预测2021—2025年全科医生需求量。结果：2013—2020年，广西全科医生数量增长较快，专业化水平不断提升，预计2025年每万人口全科医生数将超过政策规划目标值；但截至2020年每万人口全科医生数仍低于全国平均水平，不同机构、不同地市全科医生配置不均衡。结论：发挥政府主导作用，强化全科医生队伍建设；提升全科医生基层就业意愿；优化全科医生区域配置，加大对欠发达地区的政策倾斜力度。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the current development status of general practitioners in Guangxi, and predict the demand for general practitioners during the 14th Five Year Plan. Methods Descriptive analysis was conducted on the data of general practitioners in Guangxi from 2013 to 2020, and the GM(1,1) model and human population ratio method were used to predict the demand for general practitioners from 2021 to 2025. Results During the period from 2013 to 2020, the number of general practitioners in Guangxi increased rapidly and the level of specialization continued to improve. It was expected that the number of general practitioners per 10 000 people in 2025 will exceed the target value of policy planning. However, the number of general practitioners per 10 000 people was still lower than the national average in 2020, and the allocation of general practitioners in different institutions and cities was uneven. Conclusion It is necessary to play the leading role of the government and strengthen the construction of the general practitioner team, enhance the willingness of general practitioners to work at the grass-roots level, and optimize the regional allocation of general practitioners and increase policy preferences for underdeveloped areas.

参考文献/References:

[1] 彭蓉，邓蒙，覃娴静，等.2015—2017年广西卫生资源配置现状及公平性研究[J].中国卫生政策研究，2020，13（3）：57-63.
[2] 伍宝玲，龚韩湘，罗桢妮.我国全科医生数量和分布现状及需要量预测研究[J].中国全科医学，2018，21（1）：13-17.
[3] 梁冰华，黄李凤.基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的中国医疗卫生资源预测分析[J].现代预防医学，2021，48（20）：3655-3659.
[4] 李慧超，谢学勤，邓小虹.北京市医疗机构卫生专业技术人员需求预测——基于人力人口比值法[J].中国卫生政策研究，2013，6（4）：56-59.
[5] 沈肖，陆方.基于人力人口比值法的乡村医生需求分析及预测研究[J].中国农村卫生事业管理，2016，36（3）：289-292.
[6] 黄冬梅，尹文强，于倩倩，等.我国全科医生资源现状与“2020政策目标”比较分析[J].中国卫生经济，2017，36（10）：51-55.
[7] 吕宁宁，武宁.我国全科医生队伍发展现状与建议[J].中国医疗管理科学，2021，11（6）：29-32.
[8] 左延莉，李虹，韦思羽，等.广西全科医生的数量和分布情况及需要量预测研究[J].中国全科医学，2016，19（19）：2252-2257.
[9] 陈方厅，赵春文，于倩倩，等.我国全科医生人力资源配置分析与预测[J].中国卫生统计，2019，36（5）：678-681.
[10] 李婉，韩彩欣.我国西部地区全科医生配置公平性研究——基于基尼系数和集聚度[J].卫生经济研究，2020，37（9）：29-32.
[11] 陈静静，黎彦岚，田学斌，等.我国全科医生资源配置公平性及预测研究[J].卫生软科学，2021，35（2）：62-65.
[12] Shen Ying, Huang Xing,Zuo Yanli,et al.Early outcomes of a rural-oriented physician education programme against rural physician shortages in Guangxi province:a prospective cohort study[J].BMJ Open,2021（11）:e049274.

相似文献/References:

[1]许敏旋,贾莉英.我国全科医生资源集聚度评价分析[J].卫生经济研究,2018,(05):35.
[2]刘佳琪,于 挺.基于胜任力模型的社区全科医生薪酬体系研究[J].卫生经济研究,2018,(08):41.
　LIU Jia-qi,YU Ting.Research on the salary system of general practitioners in community based on competency model[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2018,(9):41.
[3]皇甫慧慧,李红艳.我国全科医生资源配置公平性研究——基于泰尔指数和灰色预测方法[J].卫生经济研究,2018,(11):57.
　HUANGFU Hui-hui,LI Hong-yan.Study on the Fairness of Resource Allocation of General Practitioners in China——Based on the Theil index and the Grey Prediction Method[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2018,(9):57.
[4]崔子丹,徐 伟.澳大利亚全科医疗激励计划的经验与启示[J].卫生经济研究,2019,(02):35.
　CUI Zi-dan,XU Wei.Experience and inspirations from Australian Practice Incentives Program[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2019,(9):35.
[5]李 婉,韩彩欣.我国西部地区全科医生配置公平性研究——基于基尼系数和集聚度[J].卫生经济研究,2020,(09):29.
　LI Wan,HAN Cai-xin.Study on the Equity of GP in Western Areas——Based on Gini Coefficient and Concentration[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2020,(9):29.
[6]袁文辉,苏婉敏,王培席.广东省全科医生配置公平性分析[J].卫生经济研究,2023,40(2):85.
　YUAN Wenhui,SU Wanmin,WANG Peixi.Analysis of the Equity of General Practitioner Allocation in Guangdong Province[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2023,40(9):85.
[7]孙 瑜,吴 爽,祁 丽.我国全科医生配置公平性的区域差异及动态演进研究[J].卫生经济研究,2024,41(09):16.
　SUN Yu,WU Shuang,QI Li.Study on Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Equity in the Allocation of General Practitioners in China[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2024,41(9):16.
[8]万晓文,曹晓辉,武 媛,等.农村订单定向医学生培养政策回顾与展望[J].卫生经济研究,2025,42(04):19.
　WAN Xiaowen,CAO Xiaohui,WU Yuan,et al.Review and Prospect of the Policies for Training Rural Order Oriented Medical Student[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2025,42(9):19.

更新日期/Last Update: 2023-08-25