[1]刘子扣,朱 靓.地方政府医疗卫生支出的经济周期特征研究 ——基于省级面板数据的实证分析[J].卫生经济研究,2025,42(12):19-22.
　LIU Zikou,ZHU Liang.Local Government Health Expenditure Across Economic Cycles: an Empirical Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2025,42(12):19-22.
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地方政府医疗卫生支出的经济周期特征研究
——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
42
期数:
2025年12期
页码:
19-22
栏目:
聚焦医改
出版日期:
2025-12-02

文章信息/Info

Title:
Local Government Health Expenditure Across Economic Cycles: an Empirical Analysis based on Provincial Panel Data
作者:
刘子扣1; 朱 靓1
1.空军军医大学军事预防医学系, 特殊作业环境危害评估与防治教育部重点实验室，陕西省环境健康危害评估与防护重点实验室，陕西 西安 710032
Author(s):
LIU Zikou;  ZHU Liang
Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment/ Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment and Protection, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an Shaanxi 710032, China
关键词:
经济周期; 医疗卫生支出; 地方财政压力; 区域差异
Keywords:
economic cycle;  health expenditure;  local fiscal pressure;  regional disparity
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析经济周期不同阶段地方政府医疗卫生支出特征、调节机制及其地区异质性，为提升地方政府医疗卫生支出稳定性提供参考。方法：基于2007—2024年31个省（区、市）面板数据，以双向固定效应模型为基准设定，并引入交互项与分组估计方法增强模型解释力。结果：地方政府医疗卫生支出整体呈现显著顺经济周期特征；财政压力显著削弱了经济上行阶段的医疗卫生支出扩张能力，表现出“被动顺周期”的制度特征；地方政府医疗卫生支出的经济周期特征存在显著的地区异质性，东部地区顺周期性最强，西部地区支出较为稳定甚至呈现逆周期倾向。结论：构建更具逆周期特征的财政保障机制，优化预算排序规则，完善区域差异化财政激励体系，进一步提升地方政府医疗卫生支出的稳定性与均衡性。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the characteristics, regulatory mechanisms, and regional disparities of local government health expenditure across different economic cycles. So as to provide references for enhancing the stability of health expenditure. Methods Based on the panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2024, two-way fixed effects model was adopted as the baseline specification, with interaction terms and subgroup estimation methods introduced to improve the model interpretability. Results Local government health expenditure exhibited significant pro-cyclical characteristics overall. Fiscal pressure notably constrained the expansion of health spending during economic upswings, reflecting a pattern of "passive pro-cyclicality". Regional heterogeneity was evident: eastern China showed the strongest pro-cyclical behavior, while western regions maintained relatively stable health expenditure, even displaying counter-cyclical tendencies. Conclusion It is recommended to establish a fiscal guarantee mechanism with stronger counter-cyclical features, optimize budget prioritization rules, and improve regionally differentiated fiscal incentive systems to enhance the stability and equity of local government health expenditure.

参考文献/References:

[1] Chen G,Inder B,Lorgelly P,et al.The cyclical behaviour of public and private health expenditure in China[J].Health Economics,2013,22(09):1071-1092.
[2] 金春雨，徐悦悦.经济周期不同阶段财政支出结构优化研究——基于财政支出结构对经济增长的动态效应[J].东北大学学报（社会科学版），2023，25（04）：15-24，36.
[3] 周颖刚，范建超，郑圆圆.地方政府隐性债务与公共医疗卫生支出不足[J].厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版），2023，73（04）：18-29.

更新日期/Last Update: 2025-12-02