[1]李雅诗,翟 炯,原 彰,等.我国卫生费用增长的多维驱动因素研究[J].卫生经济研究,2026,43(03):59-62.
　LI Yashi,ZHAI Jiong,YUAN Zhang,et al.Research on Multidimensional Driving Factors of Health Expenditure Growth in China[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2026,43(03):59-62.
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我国卫生费用增长的多维驱动因素研究

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
43
期数:
2026年03期
页码:
59-62
栏目:
健康服务体系
出版日期:
2026-03-03

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on Multidimensional Driving Factors of Health Expenditure Growth in China
作者:
李雅诗1; 2; 翟 炯1; 原 彰1; 张文龙1
1.广州中医药大学公共卫生与管理学院，广东 广州 510006
2.华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院，广东 广州 510006
Author(s):
LI Yashi;  ZHAI Jiong;  YUAN Zhang;  ZHANG Wenlong
School of Politics and Public Administration, South China Normal University, Guangzhou Guangdong 510006, China
关键词:
卫生费用增长; 影响因素; 人口老龄化; 医疗价格; 医疗技术
Keywords:
health expenditure growth;  influencing factors;  population aging;  medical prices;  medical technology
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：解析2009—2023年我国卫生费用增长的多维驱动因素。方法：利用“剩余法”构建归因分解模型，从收入、保险、人口老龄化、医疗价格与医疗技术等维度分解卫生费用增长的驱动因素。结果：2009—2023年，收入效应、收入—技术交互效应对我国卫生费用增长贡献率为72.97%，其中，收入—技术交互效应贡献率（52.85%）显著高于美国（24.3%）和OECD国家（35.9%），体现了医疗技术应用的“收入驱动”特征；医疗价格对卫生费用增长的贡献率呈下降趋势；人口老龄化对卫生费用增长的贡献率为6.99%，2019—2023年提高至13.04%；保险覆盖面对卫生费用增长的贡献效应递减。结论：收入增长与医疗技术应用的协同效应是卫生费用增长的核心驱动因素，人口老龄化对卫生费用增长的推升作用日益凸显。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the multidimensional driving factors of health expenditure growth in China from 2009 to 2023. Methods An attribution decomposition model was constructed using the "residual method" to decompose the driving factors of health expenditure growth from dimensions including income, insurance, population aging, medical prices, and medical technology. Results From 2009 to 2023, the income effect and the income-technology interaction effect contributed 72.97% to the growth of health expenditure in China. Notably, the contribution rate of the income-technology interaction effect(52.85%) was significantly higher than that of the United States (24.3%) and OECD countries(35.9%), reflecting the "income-driven" characteristic of medical technology application. The contribution rate of medical prices to health expenditure growth showed a declining trend. Population aging contributed 6.99% to health expenditure growth, but increased to 13.04% during 2019 to 2023. The contribution effect of insurance coverage on health expenditure growth diminished over time. Conclusion The synergistic effect between income growth and medical technology application constitutes the core driving factor of health expenditure growth, while the impact of population aging on health expenditures has entered an accelerated release phase.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-03-03