[1]张志东,蒋 露,胡继宏,等.我国艾滋病等六种常见性传播疾病的流行趋势分析及预测[J].卫生经济研究,2026,43(03):63-67,72.
　ZHANG Zhidong,JIANG Lu,HU Jihong,et al.Analysis and Forecast of the Epidemiological Trends of Six Common Sexually Transmitted Diseases Including AIDS in China[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2026,43(03):63-67,72.
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我国艾滋病等六种常见性传播疾病的流行趋势分析及预测

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
43
期数:
2026年03期
页码:
63-67,72
栏目:
疾病负担
出版日期:
2026-03-03

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis and Forecast of the Epidemiological Trends of Six Common Sexually Transmitted Diseases Including AIDS in China
作者:
张志东1; 蒋 露1; 胡继宏1; 2; 3; 王 莉1; 龙开冲1; 张荣华1
1.甘肃中医药大学，甘肃 兰州 730000
2.甘肃中医药大学敦煌医学与转化教育部重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000
3.甘肃中医药大学教学实验实训中心，甘肃 兰州 730000
Author(s):
ZHANG Zhidong;  JIANG Lu;  HU Jihong;  WANG Li;  LONG Kaichong;  ZHANG Ronghua
Gansu University of Chinese Medicine, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China
关键词:
性传播疾病; 疾病流行趋势; 疾病防治
Keywords:
sexually transmitted diseases;  disease epidemiological trends;  disease prevention and control
分类号:
R197
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析1990—2021年我国艾滋病等六种常见性传播疾病的流行趋势，为疾病防控提供数据支持。方法：利用GBD 2021数据库，计算1990－2021年我国艾滋病、梅毒、衣原体感染、淋病、滴虫病、生殖器疱疹的发病率、死亡率和DALY率的变化率及年估计变化百分比；采用贝叶斯模型，对未来10年疾病标化DALY率进行预测。结果：2021年，我国性传播疾病的主要发病原因是衣原体感染（标化发病率4 163.33/10万）和滴虫病（标化发病率3 886.44/10万），首要死因是艾滋病（标化死亡率1.78/10万），标化DALY率最高的也是艾滋病（83.47/10万）；1990—2021年，我国艾滋病的标化发病率、发病率及DALY率持续上升，其他五种性传播疾病则呈下降趋势；六种性传播疾病的流行趋势均存在性别差异，中青年男性是高发人群；预测显示，未来10年我国艾滋病和滴虫病的标化DALY率呈上升趋势，其他四种性传播疾病的标化DALY率呈下降趋势。结论：我国艾滋病防治形势严峻，应重点关注男性青壮年和中老年人群，制定差异化的防控策略，降低疾病发病率、死亡率和DALY率。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the epidemiological trends of six common sexually transmitted diseases(STDs) including AIDS in China from 1990 to 2021, providing data support for disease prevention and control. Methods The Global Burden of Disease Database 2021(GBD 2021) was used to analyze the rates of change and annual estimated percentage changes in incidence, mortality, and DALY rates for AIDS, syphilis, chlamydia infection, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and genital herpes from 1990 to 2021. A Bayesian model was used to predict the standardized DALY rates of these diseases over the next decade. Results In 2021, the primary causes of STDs incidence in China were chlamydia infection(standardized incidence rate: 4 163.33/100 000) and trichomoniasis(standardized incidence rate: 3 886.44/100 000). The leading cause of STD-related mortality was AIDS(standardized mortality rate: 1.78/100 000), with AIDS also having the highest standardized DALY rate(83.47 per 100 000). From 1990 to 2021, standardized incidence rate, incidence rate, and DALY rate of AIDS continued to rise, while the other five STDs showed a declining trend. Gender differences existed in the epidemiological trends of all six STDs, with young and middle-aged men being the high-risk population. The prediction showed that the standardized DALY rate of AIDS and trichomoniasis in China will increase in the next 10 years, while the standardized DALY rate of the other four STDs will decrease. Conclusion The situation of AIDS prevention and control in China is severe. Special attention should be paid to young and middle-aged males as well as the elderly population, and differentiated prevention and control strategies should be formulated to reduce the incidence rate, mortality rate, and DALY rate of the diseases.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-03-03