[1]杨珂馨,钟菲菲,曾永杰,等.1992—2021年中国白血病发病和死亡趋势分析 ——基于Joinpoint回归模型和年龄－时期－出生队列模型[J].卫生经济研究,2025,42(08):24-31,36.
　YANG Kexin,ZHONG Feifei,ZENG Yongjie,et al.Trend Analysis of Leukemia Incidence and Mortality in China from 1992 to 2021 ——Based on Joinpoint Regression Model and Age-Period-Birth Cohort Model[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2025,42(08):24-31,36.
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1992—2021年中国白血病发病和死亡趋势分析
——基于Joinpoint回归模型和年龄－时期－出生队列模型

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
42
期数:
2025年08期
页码:
24-31,36
栏目:
理论研究
出版日期:
2025-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Trend Analysis of Leukemia Incidence and Mortality in China from 1992 to 2021
——Based on Joinpoint Regression Model and Age-Period-Birth Cohort Model
作者:
杨珂馨1; 钟菲菲1; 曾永杰1; 郝彦斌1; 李 钧1
1.赣南医科大学公共卫生与健康管理学院，江西 赣州 341000
Author(s):
YANG Kexin;  ZHONG Feifei;  ZENG Yongjie;  HAO Yanbin;  LI Jun
School of Public Health and Health Management, Gannan Medical University, Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000, China
关键词:
白血病; Joinpoint回归模型; 年龄-时期-出生队列模型; 发病率; 死亡率
Keywords:
leukemia;  Joinpoint regression model;  age-period-birth cohort model;  incidence;  mortality
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析1992—2021年中国白血病发病及死亡趋势。方法：应用Joinpoint回归模型分析白血病患者发病率及死亡率的变化，应用年龄－时期－出生队列模型分析其中的影响因素。结果：1992—2021年中国男性和女性白血病发病率的年均变化百分比分别为0.31%和-0.42%，死亡率的年均变化百分比分别为-1.71%和-2.58%；年龄效应结果显示，发病和死亡风险呈“U”型分布；时期效应结果显示，发病风险呈上升或波动上升趋势，死亡风险逐渐下降；出生队列效应结果显示，发病和死亡风险都逐渐下降。结论：1992—2021年中国白血病发病率先下降后上升，死亡率逐年下降，年龄、时期、出生队列对中国白血病发病和死亡风险都有较大影响，应积极推行三级预防，有效控制白血病发病率和死亡率。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the trend of leukemia incidence and death in China from 1992 to 2021. Methods The changes of incidence and mortality rate of leukemia patients were analyzed by applying the Joinpoint regression model, and the influencing factors were analyzed by applying the age-period-birth cohort model. Results From 1992 to 2021, the average annual percentage changes of leukemia incidence rate were 0.31% and -0.42% for males and females, and the average annual percentage changes of mortality rate were -1.71%and -2.58% for males and females in China, respectively. The results of the age effect showed that the risk of morbidity and mortality had a "U" shaped distribution. The period effect showed that the risk of morbidity was increasing or fluctuating, and the risk of mortality was gradually decreasing. The birth cohort effect showed that the risk of both morbidity and mortality were gradually decreasing. Conclusion From 1992 to 2021, the incidence rate of leukemia in China first decreased and then increased, and the mortality rate decreased year by year. Age, period, and birth cohort havd a greater impact on the incidence and mortality risk of leukemia. It is necessary to actively implement tertiary prevention to effectively control the incidence rate and mortality rate of leukemia.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-07-31