[1]胡正东,汪 津.脑卒中疾病经济负担变化趋势分析及预测[J].卫生经济研究,2026,43(01):31-36.
　HU Zhengdong,WANG Jin.Analysis of Trends and Prediction of the Economic Burden of Stroke[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2026,43(01):31-36.
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脑卒中疾病经济负担变化趋势分析及预测

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
43
期数:
2026年01期
页码:
31-36
栏目:
疾病负担
出版日期:
2026-01-06

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of Trends and Prediction of the Economic Burden of Stroke
作者:
胡正东1; 汪 津1
1.湖南中医药大学人文与管理学院，湖南 长沙 410208
Author(s):
HU Zhengdong;  WANG Jin
College of Humanities and Management, Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha Hunan 410208, China
关键词:
脑卒中; 疾病经济负担; 变化趋势; 预测
Keywords:
stroke;  economic burden of disease;  trends;  prediction
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：分析全球和中国脑卒中疾病负担和经济负担变化趋势，为优化相关政策提供参考。方法：基于2000—2019年全球脑健康支出数据集，分析脑卒中疾病负担和经济负担变化趋势、支出结构以及年龄—性别分布，利用时间序列模型预测2020—2050年中国脑卒中疾病经济负担。结果：2000—2019年，全球和中国脑卒中的疾病经济负担总值和人均经济负担值均呈显著上升趋势；中国脑卒中疾病经济负担以住院支出为主，80~84岁人群的人均经济负担最高，男性群体的经济负担整体高于女性；预测结果显示，2020—2050年中国脑卒中疾病经济负担将持续上升。结论：我国脑卒中疾病防控压力和就医成本控制压力俱增，应不断深化医保支付方式改革，加强基础医疗服务体系建设，提升社会公众的疾病预防意识，鼓励社会资本投入，从而减轻脑卒中疾病负担和经济负担。
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the trends in disease burden and economic burden of stroke globally and in China, and to provide references for optimizing relevant policies. Methods Based on the global brain health expenditure dataset from 2000 to 2019, trends in the disease burden and economic burden of stroke, expenditure structure, and age-gender distribution were analyzed. A time series model was used to predict the economic burden of stroke in China from 2020 to 2050. Results From 2000 to 2019, both the total and per capita economic burden of stroke showed a significant upward trend globally and in China. In China, inpatient expenditure constituted the main component of the economic burden of stroke, with the highest per capita burden observed in the 80-84 age group, and the overall economic burden was higher in males than in females. The prediction results indicate that the economic burden of stroke in China will continue to rise from 2020 to 2050. Conclusion China faces increasing pressure in both stroke prevention and control and healthcare cost containment. It is recommended to deepen the reform of medical insurance payment, strengthen the construction of primary healthcare service systems, enhance public awareness of disease prevention, and encourage investment from social capital, so as to alleviate the disease burden and economic burden of stroke.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-01-06