[1]李可心,杨博韬,赵子珂,等.医疗服务体系与公共卫生体系耦合协调发展及时空演进研究[J].卫生经济研究,2026,43(10):25-31.
　LI Kexin,YANG Botao,ZHAO Zike,et al.Study on the Coupling Coordinated Development and Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Medical Service System and Public Health System[J].Journal Press of Health Economics Research,2026,43(10):25-31.
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医疗服务体系与公共卫生体系耦合协调发展及时空演进研究

卫生经济研究[ISSN:1004-7778/CN:33-1056/F]

卷:
43
期数:
2026年10期
页码:
25-31
栏目:
健康服务体系
出版日期:
2026-10-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on the Coupling Coordinated Development and Spatio-Temporal Evolution of the Medical Service System and Public Health System
作者:
李可心1; 2; 杨博韬1; 2; 赵子珂1; 2; 曹志辉1; 2
1.华北理工大学经济管理学院，河北 唐山 063210
2.华北理工大学卫生健康政策与管理研究中心，河北 唐山 063210
Author(s):
LI Kexin;  YANG Botao;  ZHAO Zike;  CAO Zhihui
address: School of Economics and Management, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan Hebei 063210, China
关键词:
医疗服务体系; 公共卫生体系; 耦合协调度; 时空演进
Keywords:
medical service system;  public health system;  coupling coordination degree;  spatio-temporal evolution
分类号:
R19
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的：探究2010—2023年我国医疗服务体系与公共卫生体系耦合协调发展水平及其时空演进规律，为优化医疗与公共卫生资源配置提供参考。方法：基于31个省份面板数据，运用熵值法测算两个系统综合发展水平，通过耦合协调模型、中断时间序列模型及空间自相关分析，研究两个系统的协同效应及关键影响因素。结果：2010—2023年，两个系统耦合协调度从0.462 2提升至0.631 2，经历“濒临失调→勉强协调→初级协调”的演进过程；2010—2013年空间聚集显著（Moran's I指数0.197 9），2014—2019年趋于随机（Moran's I指数0.051 8），2020—2023年空间聚集重现（Moran's I指数0.186 4）；经济发展水平与耦合协调度存在显著空间分异特征，东部地区省份以经济拉动型为主，中部、西部地区政策推动型省份数量增加；新冠疫情对耦合协调度的瞬时影响（?茁2 =0.003 9）和持续效应（?茁3=0.000 3）均不显著，但加速了公共卫生体系建设。结论：两个系统的耦合协调水平稳步提升但区域差异显著，经济与政策作用存在区域异质性，需通过优化资源配置等措施进一步提升协调水平。
Abstract:
Objective To investigate coupling coordinated development and spatio-temporal evolution of medical service system and public health system in China from 2010 to 2023. Methods Based on panel data from 31 provinces, the entropy method was used to measure the comprehensive development levels of medical service system and public health system. The coupling coordination model, interrupted time-series model, and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to study the synergistic effects and key influencing factors of the two systems. Results From 2010 to 2023, the coupling coordination degree between the two systems increased from 0.462 2 to 0.631 2, undergoing an evolutionary process from near-dysfunction to marginal coordination to primary coordination. Spatial agglomeration was significant(Moran's I index of 0.197 9) from 2010 to 2013, tended towards randomness(Moran's I index of 0.051 8) from 2014 to 2019, reappeared(Moran's I index of 0.186 4) from 2020 to 2023. There were significant spatial heterogeneity characteristics between economic development levels and coupling coordination degrees. Provinces in the eastern region were primarily economically driven, while the number of policy-driven provinces in the central and western regions increased. The COVID-19 pandemic had no significant instantaneous impact(β2=0.003 9) or lasting effect (β3=0.000 3) on coupling coordination, but it accelerated the development of public health systems. Conclusion The level of coupling coordination between the two systems has steadily improved, but there are significant regional differences. There is regional heterogeneity in the role of economy and policy, and measures such as optimizing resource allocation are needed to further enhance the level of coordination.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-10-08